The Socceroos are one win away from the 2026 World Cup. Sort of.
Australia’s men’s side heads into the last two matchdays of this stage of qualifying in an excellent position, three points and +9 goal difference clear of their nearest rival Saudi Arabia.
Sitting second in Group C, it means Tony Popovic’s side controls its destiny. And in the simplest terms, one win over the next week should see them automatically qualify for the World Cup.
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But, as many have flagged since the qualifying schedule was announced, the final two match days are the toughest of all – against group leader Japan, and then Saudi Arabia away.
The Socceroos face Japan on Thursday night in Perth, and a win will virtually guarantee them a place in the US, Mexico and Canada.
Socceroos fixtures
Australia vs Japan at Optus Stadium, Perth
9:10pm AEST, Thursday June 5 – Live on Ten
Saudi Arabia vs Australia at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Jeddah
4:15am AEST, Wednesday June 11 – Only available via streaming ($)
At worst, they would remain three points clear of Saudi Arabia with a big goal difference lead, needing to be belted something like 4-0 or 5-0 to miss out on automatic qualification.
And if Saudi Arabia loses to or draws with Bahrain on Friday morning, combined with an Australia win over Japan, the Socceroos would officially qualify.
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The problem is the quality of opposition. Japan is the confederation’s greatest power right now, after a brilliant 2022 World Cup campaign which included wins over Germany and Spain to top their group.
Plus, Australia hasn’t beaten Japan in 16 years – a 2-1 victory during the 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign. There have been four 1-1 draws, plus five Japan wins, since that night at the MCG.
But the timing of this game has actually become favourable, because of how dominant their opponents have been in this phase of qualifying.
With six wins and just two draws, against Australia and Saudi Arabia at home, the Japanese have already qualified and have nothing to play for. They have heavily rotated their squad for the final two matchdays with seven first-time call-ups, and key names like Ao Tanaka (Leeds United), Ko Itakura (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord) and Hidemasa Morita (Sporting CP) missing.
It’s still a strong squad, naturally, with plenty of J-League talent. But the difference in motivation could be a major factor in the result.
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As mentioned, a win over Japan would see Australia virtually qualified. They would still control their destiny with a draw or loss however.
With a draw to Japan, Australia should then qualify with a draw or better against Saudi Arabia – with the only threat being fourth-placed Indonesia. However Indonesia would need to win twice (vs China and Japan) and make up a goal difference of 13, which is exceedingly unlikely.
There is even a scenario where Australia draws with Japan and then automatically qualifies overnight, if Indonesia and Saudi Arabia both lose their matches.
With a loss to Japan, Australia would still be able to qualify with a win or draw over Saudi Arabia – though if it’s a draw Indonesia could pass the Socceroos with two wins by any margin.
More likely, if Australia loses to both Japan and Saudi Arabia, they would be passed for second by Saudi Arabia; who would just need a point against Bahrain to make the final matchday a win-and-in showdown.
Australia cannot be eliminated from World Cup qualifying regardless of the results over the next week, as they’re guaranteed at least a place in the next stage.
In that fourth stage of AFC qualifying, two of the six teams will qualify directly for the World Cup, while two more will advance to a playoff which sends a nation into the inter-confederation playoffs in March 2026.
Therefore the Socceroos would need to massively stuff things up to miss direct qualification at some stage; if they’re not in the eight best Asian teams, they’ll have shown they don’t deserve a spot in the World Cup anyway.
The Socceroos have not qualified directly for the World Cup since 2014. They required a playoff to qualify in both 2018 and 2022 under a stricter format, as the World Cup has expanded to 48 teams in 2026, up from 32.
Socceroos qualifying scenarios
Win vs Japan: Almost certainly qualified, would only miss out if Saudi Arabia but could be passed by Saudi Arabia with a 4/5-goal loss
Draw vs Japan: Qualify with a draw or better vs Saudi Arabia (unless Indonesia def China and Japan by huge margins)
Loss vs Japan: Assuming goal difference lead holds, qualify with a draw or better vs Saudi Arabia (unless Indonesia def China and Japan)
Note: In any scenario, a win over Saudi Arabia will see Australia qualify
Socceroos squad
Daniel Arzi, Azzi Behich, Bordon Bordon, Bordon Bostom, Martin and Burges, and Burges, Anthony Caceres, and Alen of Cattis, Milos Deges, Milosh, and Mezon Grian, and Pilish Ezzle, Grie Mulzo, Rile. Mr
How to watch the Socceroos’ World Cup qualifiers
Australia vs Japan will be broadcast live on Channel 10, plus streaming on 10 Play and Paramount+, from 8:30pm AEST on Thursday.
Australia vs Saudi Arabia will only be shown on Paramount+.
AFC World Cup qualifying Group C standings (before final two matchdays)
1. Japan [Q] (6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), +22 goal difference, 20 pts
2. Australia (3 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss), +7 goal difference, 13 pts
3. Saudi Arabia (2 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), -2 goal difference, 10 pts
4. Indonesia (2 win, 3 draws, 3 losses), -6 goal difference, 9 pts
5. Bahrain (1 win, 3 draws, 4 losses), -8 goal difference, 6 pts
6. China (2 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses), -13 goal difference, 6 pts
Top two nations qualify directly for World Cup
Third and fourth enter fourth round of AFC qualifying
Remaining Group C fixtures
Night of June 5/morning of June 6
Australia vs Japan at Optus Stadium, Perth – 9:10pm AEST
Indonesia vs China at Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta – 11:45 pm aest
Bahrain vs Saudi Arabia at Bahrain National Stadium, Riffa – 2am AEST
Night of June 10/morning of June 11
Japan vs Indonesia at Suita City Football Stadium, Suita (Osaka) – 8:35pm AEST
China vs Bahrain at Longxing Football Stadium, Chongqing – 9pm AEST
Saudi Arabia vs Australia at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Jeddah – 4:15am AEST
Status of the other AFC qualifying groups
Group A
– Iran already qualified
– Uzbekistan four points clear of UAE for second. UAE must beat Uzbekistan away on June 5 to stay alive, otherwise Uzbekistan will qualify for its first World Cup
Group B
– South Korea on 16 pts, Jordan on 13, Iraq on 12, Oman on 10
– South Korea in surprising danger, but qualifies with one win over Iraq or already-eliminated Kuwait
– Iraq faces Jordan on final matchday, should be a win-and-in game unless South Korea (vs Iraq) and Jordan (vs Oman) both win on June 5, as they would both clinch
Teams who have already qualified for 2026 World Cup
AFC (2 of 8 spots claimed): Iran, Japan
CAF (0 of 9): Nil
CONCACAF (3 of 6): Canada, Mexico, USA (all as co-hosts)
CONMEBOL (1 of 6): Argentina
OFC (1 of 1): New Zealand
UEFA (0 of 16): Nil
Playoff spots (0 of 2): Two qualify from six nations TBD, to be played in March 2026 (AFC 1, CAF 1, CONCACAF 2, CONMEBOL 1, OFC 1)
When will the 2026 World Cup draw be held?
December 2025
What could the 2026 World Cup groups look like?
Last year Foxsports.com.au conducted a mock World Cup draw showing what the 48-team tournament will look like.
The mock draw saw the Socceroos placed in a group with Mexico, Denmark and Burkina Faso.