Coming into 2025 and his first season as Marc Marquez’s MotoGP teammate, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia had four circuits where he rode like, looked like, flexed like … Marc Marquez.
Since 2022, Jerez in Spain had been a nailed-on 25 points. Same with his home race at Mugello in Italy. Assen, the Dutch circuit he reveres so much that he has the track layout tattooed on his right arm? Won it, once, twice, three times.
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And then there’s the Red Bull Ring in Austria, site of this weekend’s resumption of the 2025 campaign after the mid-season break with round 13 of 22, and where Bagnaia has been utterly dominant for three years.
In 2022, the final year before MotoGP introduced sprint races at every round, Bagnaia led for every lap and won. In ’23, sprints now offering more points on Saturdays, Bagnaia took them all, won the Grand Prix by over five seconds, and never saw another bike in front of him.
Last year, after he won Saturday’s sprint, Bagnaia was – gasp – headed for one lap in Austria by Jorge Martin. Once he cleared the Spaniard on lap two, he cleared off. Of the past 84 Grands Prix race laps run in Austria, Bagnaia has led 83 of them.
All of which means … Marc Marquez is favoured to win the one Grand Prix that’s been on the calendar for the majority of his career for the first time. Right?
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Twelve rounds into 2025, Bagnaia’s sole win in either race format was gifted more than earned, coming courtesy of Marquez crashing from a comfortable lead at the Circuit of the Americas in Texas in round three.
Either side of that, Marquez has won eight Grands Prix, 11 of 12 sprints, and has a 120-point lead heading to the Styrian Mountains this weekend, making his championship denouement matter of when, not if.
That’s for perhaps the not-too distant future; for Bagnaia, the rest of 2025 is all about showing some semblance of resistance to the Marquez blowtorch that he hasn’t managed all season given he’s 168 points adrift of his teammate just past the halfway stage.
Those three-race winning streaks in Jerez, Mugello and Assen ended with third, fourth, and third-place finishes after years of total domination.
Bagnaia has lost control of his momentum, the number one status he enjoyed inside his own team and the championship he’s competed for every year since 2021. If ever he was going to stand his ground – and he needs to, arguably for the sake of 2026 as much as this season – the Red Bull Ring would be a good place to start.
History suggests it can happen, but we’ve already said that three times this season at other tracks that were – appropriate use of past tense – Pecco’s playgrounds.
Bagnaia’s ownership of Austria, or Marquez’s nine-year victory drought at a track where he’s often come so close, yet been so far? One of those narratives will shift this weekend, and will be the primary topic of conversation on what has the hallmarks of a compelling event, sketchy pre-weekend weather forecasts and the extreme one-off nature of the 10-turn track adding a temporarily welcome shot of uncertainty into a season that has been anything but.
Here’s your Insider’s Guide to round 13 of the MotoGP season, with the 28-lap Austrian Grand Prix set for 10pm AEST on Sunday after the 14-lap sprint race at 11pm Saturday AEST.
MASTER OF AUSTRIA ‘COMPLETELY DIFFERENT’ AS CONFIDENCE SAPPED
Bagnaia would typically ooze confidence on his return to a track where he’s won the past five races over three years, but said on Thursday that his lack of feeling in braking Ducati’s GP25 machine – at the track that requires the hardest braking forces of the season – has him wary this weekend.
Brembo, the company that produces MotoGP’s brakes, rates the Spielberg circuit as a six out of six on its scale of braking difficulty; only Buriram, site of the opening round of the season in Thailand in March, similarly challenges the stopping capabilities of the bikes.
With its mix of long straights into heavy braking zones, riders spend one-third of the lap time in Austria hammering the brakes, with the downhill turn four, where bikes decelerate from 301km/h to 81km/h in just 246 metres, the biggest challenge.
On Thursday, Bagnaia revealed he’d watched some of his races from the past few years during the mid-season break, and was taken aback with what he saw.
PIT TALK PODCAST: MotoGP is back … but can Marquez banish his bad memories of Austria? Listen to Pit Talk below.
“I rewatched many races from last year and the previous year, seeing how competitive I was in the fight, following others, overtaking, braking super hard,” he said.
“And watching this season, I was a completely different Pecco, there was nothing comparable. So, I want to change this thing and be similar to last year. I’m looking forward to finding back my speed and fighting for wins.
“I already understood that my riding style does not suit this bike so we need to change something, and I need to change something.
“With this bike I cannot brake like I want, this is the hardest part for me because it is the biggest difference from 2021 since I’ve been in the factory Ducati team. This is the main thing to change, and I’m trying to do it.”
Meanwhile, teammate Marquez – who lost last-lap battles in Austria with Ducati riders Andrea Dovizioso (2017, 2019) and Jorge Lorenzo (2018) when he was riding for Honda – said his championship advantage was significant enough to think longer-term for the final 10 rounds of the season, starting from this weekend at a track that has become an asterisk on his CV.
“Starting the second part of the season with a 120-point advantage, the only one who can lose the championship is you,” he acknowledged.
“I will need to control myself in some races, because you cannot be the fastest out there every session, every practice and every race. But the mentality is the same, try to do my maximum every weekend.
“I never obsessed about numbers, I’m obsessed with winning. Doesn’t matter how much, when. Championships are the most important and this second part of the season I cannot have the mistake to just want to win every race, because the main target is the championship.”
Ducati has won nine of the 11 races at the Red Bull Ring since it returned to the calendar in 2016; two races were held at the track in the covid-compromised 2020 and 2021 seasons, with only KTM riders Miguel Oliveira (2020) and Brad Binder (2021) preventing a Ducati clean sweep at a track where horsepower is king.
“I lose three, four times against the red bikes … now I’m riding the red bike, so let’s see if we can achieve it,” Marquez said.
Marquez’s closest championship rival, younger brother Alex Marquez (Gresini Ducati) carries a long-lap penalty into this weekend’s Grand Prix after taking out Honda’s Joan Mir on the second lap of the most recent race in the Czech Republic, Mir’s latest misfortune in a season that has seen him crash more than any other rider besides Honda stablemate Johann Zarco.
‘PLAYING THE WAITING GAME’: MILLER’S 2026 PLANS STILL UNCERTAIN
Jack Miller’s MotoGP future remains in limbo, with the out-of-contract Australian admitting his patience is being stretched as Yamaha mulls a decision over three of its riders for next season.
With the factory Yamaha team having spearhead Fabio Quartararo locked down for next year, and Miller’s Pramac Yamaha team having already signed World Superbikes star Toprak Razgatlioglu, Quartararo’s teammate Alex Rins and Miller’s teammate Miguel Oliveira – both with deals for 2026 – and Miller are waiting to hear their fate, with Miller (14th) the best-placed of that trio in the standings.
Miller, who spent part of his mid-season break riding for Yamaha in Japan in the prestigious Suzuka 8-Hour endurance event, said in Austria on Thursday that “there’s still nothing on the table” for 2026, and reiterated his commitment to Yamaha and hopes of staying beyond this season.
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“Just waiting, playing the waiting game,” he said.
“I’ve been told a couple of times [about the timeframe for a decision] … the first was before the summer break and then it was after summer break, and it’s slowly getting later. Why are we delaying? I don’t know, but I hope something comes out soon.
“Obviously other opportunities are starting to close up, so I’m trying to be as patient as I possibly can because I love this project, I love working with Yamaha and I enjoy the whole environment.
“I’m very happy where I am and I feel I can improve and do more, but we’ll wait and see. I think they’re very happy with me, and I’ve made the call plenty of times to ask if there’s any more I can do, do different, whatever. I’m being as patient as possible.”
Miller said his second experience of the Suzuka 8-Hour – the Australian finished second as part of a three-rider Yamaha line-up with World Superbikes rider Andrea Locatelli and Japanese endurance veteran Katsuyuki Nakasuga – was “a mega experience.”
“Humid and a lot of hard work, but also to come away with a podium was really nice,” he said.
“To battle the whole race with Honda, they were the better man on the day, so hopefully we can go back and try to challenge them again. A good way to spend the summer break – you lose a week, but it was an unreal experience.”
Miller’s YZR-M1 machine will feature Yamaha’s latest fairing this weekend, plus an electronics update the three-time Red Bull Ring podium finisher said would be beneficial, if minor.
“These things are ballistic missiles,” he said of the difference between riding a MotoGP bike and a superbike.
“The slide control … we’ve tested it a few times and it seems to be good and help us a little bit on the edge [of the tyre], just to be able to keep the spin under control. It’s just opening up another parameter in the electronic control unit that was already there. Don’t get me wrong, it doesn’t f**king change bugger-all, really … micro increments, you could say.”
HONDA TEAM’S CURSED SECOND SEAT TO STAY VACANT
LCR Honda will again field just one rider this weekend in Austria after underperforming rookie Somkiat Chantra was ruled out of his second consecutive Grand Prix with injury, and no fewer than five potential alternatives were unable to take the Thai rider’s place.
Chantra, who has scored just one point in a torrid debut MotoGP season after graduating from Moto2 last year, injured his right knee in a motocross training crash in Spain in early July, and is set to be out past next weekend’s Hungarian Grand Prix at the new Balaton Park circuit.
Former LCR Honda rider and current tester Takaaki Nakagami replaced Chantra in the Czech Republic, but suffered a posterior cruciate ligament injury to his right knee when he was taken out by Augusto Fernandez (Yamaha) in the Brno sprint race.
Fellow Honda test rider Aleix Espargaro couldn’t be considered after tearing a right thumb ligament in a cycling race. Former MotoGP racer Iker Lecuona was tabbed to replace Chantra, but fractured his left wrist in a World Superbikes crash in Hungary last month.
Lecuona’s Honda Superbikes teammate Xavi Vierge, a former Moto2 rider, was considered but bypassed as he has never ridden a MotoGP bike, while former Grand Prix rider Stefan Bradl turned down an approach to deputise for Chantra.
Espargaro, pending medical clearance, will race in Hungary next weekend, leaving LCR with just French Grand Prix winner Zarco on the grid for a second consecutive event.
KTM’s Maverick Vinales, who missed the Czech Republic round with a left shoulder injury, and Ducati’s Franco Morbidelli, absent at Brno with a left collarbone injury, both return to a 21-rider grid this weekend in Austria.